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A Myopic viewpoint (yet points well taken) projecting why China would want to defend Ukraine – Belts & Roads

Concluding the topic of the invasion of Ukraine, here is an interesting look at the US benefits from the conflict from one popular Chinese analyst:

There are at least four main advantages to the constant US speculation about a “Russian-Ukrainian war”.

First, semiconductors

Biden wants semiconductors back in the US so badly that the US views today’s East Asian semiconductor supply chain as the number one threat.

Did you know that in the semiconductor supply chain, chip production depends on Russia and Ukraine for raw materials?

90% neon and 40% krypton come from Ukraine, while 40% palladium comes from Russia.

The lithography process required for the production of microcircuits requires a laser gas mixture for extreme ultraviolet radiation, and more than 96% of the gas mixture is neon semiconductor gas.

The constant drumbeat of the war between Russia and Ukraine has already caused a panic in the semiconductor market, a sharp increase in prices for semiconductors is expected, and in addition, the process of home semiconductor production in the United States will accelerate.

This fits in well with Biden’s arguments that the semiconductor supply chain is not secure and that the US should take control of the semiconductor supply chain:.

“You see, I said that the semiconductor supply chain is not safe, speed up the supply chain of semiconductors to the United States quickly.”

Semiconductors, for the US, this is the first benefit of the conflict

Second, crude oil and natural gas

Regarding crude oil, as we said before, the United States was the world’s largest crude oil producer in the past two years, and the shale oil producers in the United States made a lot of money.

But the cake is so big. The United States sells more oil, and the oil-producing countries in the Middle East and Russia sell less. Then the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cannot sit and wait to die, so it united with Russia and came up with OPEC PLUS.

The two major oil-producing regions, the Middle East and Russia, joined forces to increase production to suppress oil prices, which once pushed international oil prices to US$3 or US$40.

The cost of shale oil exploration in the United States is much higher than that in the Middle East and Russia. The sharp drop in oil prices has caused shale oil companies to close down in batches, and has successfully squeezed the United States out of the butt to sit on the throne of “the largest country in crude oil production”.

But today, with the ongoing crisis in Russia and Ukraine, the international oil price is approaching $100 a barrel, the highest price in seven years

As long as oil prices are high, U.S. crude oil merchants will be active again, and the United States will return to the throne of the world’s largest crude oil producer.

And the same goes for natural gas.

Europe is extremely dependent on natural gas, 40% of which is bought from Russia.

But when the United States hyped the Russia-Ukraine crisis, we saw:

Russia’s sales of European natural gas dropped by 25%, while Europe’s purchase of American natural gas increased by 25% during the same period.

In other words, Europe has transferred all its share of Russian natural gas to the United States.

And you must know that what Russia sells to Europe is natural gas, and the price is cheap, while what the United States sells to Europe is liquefied natural gas. The cost of transporting natural gas from the United States to Europe is much higher than that of Russia.

This will make the price of gas for Europeans soar, so Europe can only suffer first.

Once a conflict breaks out between Russia and Ukraine, the United States can raise the banner of sanctions, interrupt Russia’s crude oil and natural gas exports, and exclude Russia from the world dollar trading system.

The United States will immediately and logically eat the huge energy cake vacated after Russia was expelled.

Crude oil and natural gas, the United States eats the second wave.

Third, wheat and corn

Ukraine’s black soil and Russia’s farmland are both major exporters of world grain.

In terms of wheat exports:

Russia’s wheat exports ranked first, accounting for 16.93%

Ukraine is the third largest exporter of wheat with 11.71%

The wheat of the two countries is sold in large quantities to Europe and Asia, and they are important countries in the world’s food stability.

In the current Russia-Ukraine crisis, even if the war cannot be fought, sanctions and turmoil alone can greatly affect food security and prices.

The United States is also a major agricultural country. The United States is the fourth largest exporter of wheat in the world, accounting for 11.13%, and the second largest, Australia, accounting for 12.58%.

It is not difficult to foresee that once the wheat of the eldest and the third cannot be sold, the second and the fourth will be happy.

The U.S. and Australia will quickly fill the global wheat gap, and in the event of a surge in wheat prices.

Fourth, U.S. debt

U.S. debt is bound to dance with the Russian-Ukrainian crisis. Whenever the U.S. hype wars, global risk aversion will rise. The main options for safe-haven funds are to buy U.S. bonds and gold.

U.S. bond buying increases sharply, yields will continue to fall

Biden understands this.

Just last month, the U.S. released a terrible economic number.

In January 2022, inflation in the United States reached 7.5%, a 40-year high. Such a high inflation shocked the outside world and directly affected Biden’s satisfaction in governing.

Inflation soared, and with it came a sell-off in U.S. Treasuries.

The simple truth is that rising inflation eats into bondholders’ returns.

If inflation is zero, then you can steadily get a few percentage points of U.S. Treasury yields.

But if inflation is as high as 7.5%, you will not be able to make any money with U.S. bonds, so you will sell a lot of U.S. bonds

The U.S. is built on U.S. debt. The 30 trillion U.S. debt must be continuously taken over. If no one takes over, the U.S. debt will continue to be sold, which is absolutely unacceptable to the U.S. government. This is U.S. national security. bottom line.

And the best way to catalyze the buying of U.S. debt is war.

Regardless of whether the United States is directly involved in the war or indirectly, any major international conflict will cause the stock market to collapse and make the market’s risk aversion soar.

Safe-haven funds will flood into U.S. Treasuries and, of course, gold.

In this way, Biden can hedge against the massive U.S. bond sell-off that followed a surge in inflation in January without losing money.

Relying on the advocacy of war to offset the sell-off of U.S. debt.

America, eat the fourth wave.

From crude oil to corn, from wheat to U.S. debt, after four waves, it is enough to eat.

This is also the fundamental reason why the United States, from top to bottom, from the president to the staff, is restlessly fighting, fighting, and fighting.

And even if the war did not start in the end, the panic atmosphere of war blown up by the United States has already made him huge profits.

Biden, there may be no way to deal with the epidemic and the domestic economy, but there are ways to instigate war and profit from war

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Treadstone 71

@Treadstone71LLC Cyber intelligence, counterintelligence, Influence Operations, Cyber Operations, OSINT, Clandestine Cyber HUMINT, cyber intel and OSINT training and analysis, cyber psyops, strategic intelligence, Open-Source Intelligence collection, analytic writing, structured analytic techniques, Target Adversary Research, cyber counterintelligence, strategic intelligence analysis, estimative intelligence, forecasting intelligence, warning intelligence, threat intelligence
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