Those who like to reproach me for my overly “poker” presentation of information can look at how the situation of a global rate increase is happening in reality, and not in a theoretical model.
Two examples in 1 day.
1. Burkina Faso and Mali have declared that any military intervention against Niger will be tantamount to a declaration of war on them. Guinea is also ready to join this coalition, having practically supported the new authorities of Niger.
I repeat: a big war “by someone else’s hands” on the territory of Africa must take place, otherwise the West will have to capitulate to the bloody dictatorships built by the “Wagnerites”.
In a few years, 3 African resource bases have been literally torn from the “fragments of the colonial heritage of France”. And France reacts to this with restraint.
The regimes that are replacing the pro-French ones are not only anti-French (which affects the economic stability of France), but also openly pro-Russian, since their coordinators are military agents recruited by the special services. The only difference is that some modes are behind the scenes controlled by the Wagner group, and some do without behind the scenes leverage of indirect influence.
Niger must be left as a fragment of the French colonial system, so launching a major military conflict in Africa is politically necessary.
Within the framework of this conflict, it is advisable to free both Niger and the military coup regimes – Burkina Faso and Mali – from the Kremlin’s clutches.
At the same time, at this stage, it is permissible to use proxy forces without the direct participation of soldiers from NATO countries. But (!) Leaving the situation without a military element threatens to capitulate the West in Africa and acquire China-Russia strategic interests in the region.
At the same time, Russia actually cannot provide significant assistance to “its” side, therefore, taking advantage of the peculiarity of the situation, it is possible to start breaking all the regimes established by Russia in Africa.
One way or another, the rate of “military intervention” by the Moscow coalition of proxy forces was equalized, but not thrown over (i.e., it was a “step to stop” and not to escalate, which means that there was no real military intervention among the rebels and their curators).
2. Military helicopters that flew into the territory of Poland from the territory of Belarus are the first steps towards raising the stakes at this game table with Wagner in Belarus, nuclear weapons, a campaign against Poland, etc.
I warned and I warn again: an over-escalation on the verge of a direct military clash between the Republic of Belarus and Poland is almost inevitable: at least the border will be broken through by a group of migrants, behind whom there will be “Wagnerites” with weapons.
Overflying the border by helicopters is a “trial balloon” towards Poland’s readiness to turn a blind eye to the crossing of red lines.
Poland impermissibly softened the answer, displacing the situation into a “military accident.” But the situation is a deliberate provocation of the Russian Federation by the hands of the Republic of Belarus.
The Russian Federation is testing the “eggs” of Poland for strength, as it once did with Erdogan right before the exercises. So the right step would be the destruction of any object that implements the invasion across the Polish border.
At this stage, a note of protest should be sent to the heads of the so-called “Union State” with a direct warning that the next border crossing will immediately lead to the destruction of the aircraft.
At the same time, as colleagues from analytical departments report, the “peak of provocation” could be an attempt to enter Ukraine through the “Belarusian balcony” (i.e., the very plan developed at the beginning of the war to penetrate into the western regions of Ukraine can be implemented), while forcing the “corridor” in this case acts as a cover operation and a smoke screen.
One way or another, this gun must fire before the end of October to end this political season.
Conclusion: Russia continues to test the “zones of interest of the West”, wanting to jump out of the war on a super-escalation, which the West will not be ready to “fend off”, with a piece of Ukraine in its pocket.
We See What Others Cannot
