Chinese war games simulate attack on a US Navy aircraft carrier strike group

Hypersonic weapons could be a ‘disaster’ for the US Navy’s most powerful carrier strike group, as a result of a simulation war game hosted by a group of military planners in China.

During 20 intense battles, the Chinese armed forces sank a US Navy AUG led by the aircraft carrier Gerald R. Ford with a salvo of 24 hypersonic anti-ship missiles.

In the scenario, US ships were hit after they approached an island in the South China Sea claimed by China despite repeated warnings.

An article detailing the war game was published in May this year. in the Chinese edition of the Journal of Test and Measurement Technology. For the first time, the results of simulating hypersonic strikes against a US aircraft carrier group have been made public.

In the course of the simulation, almost all US surface ships were destroyed by strikes and eventually sank.

In simulation, the PRC Armed Forces launched 24 hypersonic anti-ship missiles from six positions from southern China to the Gobi Desert
Two types of hypersonic anti-ship missiles with different characteristics were involved in the simulation .

It is noted that the Chinese military showed “mastery of its sophisticated launch strategy,” which consisted of a deliberately complex three-wave attack designed to deceive and overcome US AUG defense systems.

Military planners use sophisticated simulations of war games to evaluate various scenarios and develop strategies, but they cannot be relied upon to any greater extent than actual testing and evaluation.

Military experts said that the actual performance of these missiles may differ from those used in the simulation due to terrain, weather and other factors.

Therefore, it remains critical for government leaders and the public to approach these simulations with caution and realism.

The US Navy AUG in the war game consisted of six surface ships, including the aircraft carrier Gerald R. Ford, the Ticonderoga-class guided missile cruiser San Jacinto (CG-56), and four Arleigh Burke-class destroyers.

The cruiser and destroyers were equipped with advanced weaponry and defenses, including radar systems that could detect incoming threats and track multiple targets simultaneously.

According to the scenario, the total number of AUG air defense missiles varied at the level of 264 units. These included the advanced RIM-161E SM-3 missile, designed to intercept ballistic missiles both midway and in the final phase.

Advanced missile SM-3 designed to intercept ballistic missiles
Several restrictions were imposed on the Chinese military in the simulation , such as lack of access to reconnaissance satellites and a limited number of hypersonic missiles .

The basic principle of the war game was to be “indulgent towards the enemy and strict towards oneself”.

Two models of anti-ship missiles used by the Chinese side in simulations could reach a maximum speed of Mach 11 and fly at high altitude . Both types are capable of sinking an aircraft carrier or large warship with two hits.

One type of missile was reported to have a range of 2,000 km (1,240 miles) with an 80 percent chance of hitting a target, another type of missile had twice the range and a 90 percent hit accuracy.

“The accuracy of the data used in war game simulations is critical to their usefulness in evaluating potential scenarios. If the data on Chinese hypersonic missiles used in this war game is far from reality, it may affect the quality of the simulation and lead to inaccurate conclusions,” said an aerospace defense industry engineer from Beijing.

The researchers hypothesized that the materials, as well as the propulsion and guidance systems used in its design, affect the cost of the missile, suggesting that a model with greater range and accuracy could be relatively more expensive.

Using lower quality missiles for certain strikes would maximize the effectiveness of Chinese weapons, they said . For example, less reliable missiles can be used to deceive the AUG so that it works out and uses up ammunition from SM-3 missiles.

During the simulation, the PLA used a maritime intelligence network to detect and recognize the US Navy’s AUG before simultaneously launching eight less reliable hypersonic missiles from southern and central positions in China.

Although some of the missiles were intercepted, the Chinese strikes used up the US Navy’s SM-3 missiles.

The PLA then launched eight of its more accurate hypersonic missiles from north and west China, four of which were aimed at the aircraft carrier and the rest at destroyers. Two less accurate missiles were fired at the cruiser.

“After the strikes from the AUG, four ships survived, namely destroyers. The reason is that the destroyers are equipped with the softest defensive weapons, specially designed to protect against missile attacks.

After assessing the strikes and the location of the remaining targets, the PLA began a “cleansing” operation with six relatively less accurate hypersonic missiles from its southern positions.

Based on the results of the game, it was concluded that a three-wave strike is capable of destroying an average of 5.6 out of six surface ships, which will lead to the “complete destruction” of the AUG.

The use of decoy tactics will be critical to improve the effectiveness of Chinese hypersonic anti-ship missiles while reducing the number of SM-3 missiles in the US fleet.

In addition, conducting preliminary reconnaissance to prioritize targets will allow the PLA to conserve munitions and ensure that it targets only real threats.