Commentary from Black Bridge Support
The image of the future is often asked. Let’s discuss post-Russia options:
1. “Weimar Republic”
2. Failed states
3. China Russia
4. Free states of healthy people
1. After the defeat in the war and the conclusion of a peace treaty, Russia will become a pariah state in an economic crisis, with a destroyed infrastructure, a lack of skilled labor, hundreds of thousands of refugees, the unemployed, including many “veterans of the SVO” with PTSD, pardoned murderers and rapists. The peace treaty will be as humiliating and enslaving as possible, with gigantic reparations and restrictions on the army, with many prohibitions. Only public figures of the highest levels of power – Putin, Shoigu, Patrushev and others – will be formally condemned. In fact, all Russians will be punished on the basis of citizenship. The “Russians who left” will become second-class people, the remaining Russians will become poor second-class people. In state bodies, basically, the same people will remain as under Putin. Along the border there will be a “ditch with crocodiles”. This state of affairs is an excellent ground for revanchism and the unity of the nation against a common external enemy. In a dozen years, the mistakes of the war with Ukraine will be taken into account, new technologies will be introduced, organizational decisions in the army and law enforcement agencies, and the new dictator will arrange such a meat grinder that Putin will seem like a pacifist.
2. The same introductory notes on the economy and infrastructure, but local kings – oligarchs, owners of PMCs, governors with the support of organized crime groups – will decide that their time has come and drag everything that they can take by force in different directions. Instead of one Putin dictatorship, several dozen openly cannibalistic regimes are being formed. There will be no talk of any human rights. PMC Wagner practices will become commonplace from Kaliningrad to Vladivostok. They will be armed with no one knows what, in an unknown quantity and condition, including nuclear weapons and other Soviet-made weapons of mass destruction, hidden by the Putin regime “until better times.” The failed states will fight each other, basically, and this could even suit the “civilized world”, if it were not for the territory as a huge base for all imaginable and unimaginable international crime.
3. In this variant, depopulation as a result of the extermination and emigration of the population will play the main violin. One and a half billion Chinese will decide that they can, because the territory is still empty, they will go west and stop only at the Ukrainian border, “because NATO is there.” One and a half billion Chinese are not Putin’s “paper” 140 million voters. China is not the ruins of the Soviet empire like Russia, it is a global factory that independently produces everything in huge quantities. With the resources and territories of the former Russia, the population of China, and the imperial tradition of several thousand years, it will be such a force with which the rest of the world can hardly do anything except strain all possible resources for containment, but with no guarantee of success.
These were bad choices. Good one here .
4. A positive image of the future is based on the fact that local and national liberation movements will create states of a healthy person, interested in a quiet life and prosperity for themselves, their neighbors and the whole world.
The main problem is that these movements should be. And this should not be just a declaration, it should be a power struggle for power. Now – partisan and sabotage activities, then – an armed uprising, after – partisans and rebels as founding fathers and founding mothers of new states.
The new order must rest on people who have obtained rights, freedom and independence by force, remember at what cost and do not want to repeat the mistakes of the past.
Do not count on “occupation by the forces of the allies.” Look at the territory – it’s crazy. You should not count on “foreign” corps in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which will come and liberate. They need to rely on something so as not to become alien invaders. Don’t expect everything to work out by itself.
In practice, there will be a mixture of all options. In the interests of a normal, peaceful life, one must work for the fourth. Each regional or national liberation movement needs its own partisan cell and regional/national corps within the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Supporters of “separatism” should stop drawing contour maps and start building structures of rebellion and seizure of power. Supporters of the “great indivisible beautiful Russia” should take off their rose-colored glasses and understand that it has always been great not for you, but only for one person who sits on the Moscow throne, whoever he is. Supporters of “peaceful protest” should take off their white coats, roll up their sleeves and peacefully support those who are fighting for rights, freedom and independence with the use of force. Ukrainians should realize that among the “Russians” there are those who can and should be supported, and smearing everyone with the same color, ditching them with crocodiles will come out sideways for you. Everyone who wants to support the partisan movement should forget the model “you give us a share, we give you money”, advance part of the costs, help not only with finances, but also with information, instructions, contacts, aim not for a picture for the media, but for the development of the partisan movement. If we do this, something will work.
The main thing for the “peaceful opposition” is to remember that while you adhere to the high principles of non-violence, condemn “wrong methods”, consider potential allies to be insufficiently correct and come up with other excuses for inaction, someone is making History and building the future without you.
