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“There is no panic” The Cynic

The Russian front continues to collapse. Russian military correspondents complain that the Ukrainian troops (attention!) are many times larger than the Russian ones in terms of the number of personnel and in the amount of military equipment.

And this is after the Kremlin daily “destroys” a triple volume of all HIMARS delivered to Ukraine.

As it turned out, the figures drawn from the head are not able to change the situation at the front. What happened is what we have been talking about since April.

Russia moved forward, throwing all its forces into ensuring further progress. And this – it would seem – is logical, because we are talking about an expansionist war.

But even then we singled out an aspect: the pace of advancement of the Russians suggests that they are unlikely to be able to make significant progress.

Got a question. If moving forward becomes obviously impossible, then what is the next step to take?

Russia took a strange path – it transferred troops from adjacent directions to the “main” one, as a result of which Russia managed to deepen for several months by several kilometers or tens of kilometers, depending on the sector.

But progress has stopped. And – this is the most important – the resources that could be used for defense were completely spent on the offensive potential, which turned into several additional kilometers captured.

The army, in fact, “zeroed out”.
I wrote that the Russian Federation is not preparing for defense, pouring all its forces into offensive strikes, therefore, after reaching the “peak of expansion”, the Russian Federation will face a sharp collapse of the front, since Moscow simply will not have the resources to switch from attack to defense in key areas.

This is exactly what happened. Precisely.

An offensive with elements of a breakthrough, which turned into a tactical pause, quickly turned into an uncontrolled flight.

This is a matter of priorities, when the Russian Federation always chose the latter between preparing defense and attempting a small offensive.

And now nothing has changed either. The Russian Federation uses the mobilization potential as “meat on the front line.” But “meat” is not a defensive, but an offensive position.

In textbooks on military strategy, this method of throwing mobilization meat on a failed front is defined as a method of explosive transformation of the front: in fact, the defense with “meat” should hammer “bayonets”, after which the meat should move forward like a ram.

This expansionist position again does not imply long-term defense, but is honed for the emergency use of all resources in order to “kill” the strategic position of the front.

But here’s a nuance – the front is pouring in “wave-like”, which means that the mobilization resource is not enough to plug the constantly emerging holes.

Russia could go on a “massive tactical retreat” in order to prepare a mobilization reserve for the further continuation of the war within a few months – this is how the Ukrainian strategy worked when ready-to-fight troops, together with “young patriots”, went to the exercises.

So, Ukraine “lost” part of its territory as a result of the temporary numerical superiority of the Russian Federation, but Ukraine lost many times less in human and military potential.

Now highly skilled troops are gradually returning, intercepting the occupied territories with lightning speed.

That is, Ukraine caught the “funnel of time” filigree, and Russia did not even feel it, starting to throw the mobilized population into the front ranks, in fact, not giving itself the opportunity to either restore the defense, or at least somehow try to balance the front.

That is, with this method of using the mobilization potential, Russia cannot win by sending at least 300,000, at least 1,000,000, at least 10,000,000 people to the war, because the military value of an untrained soldier is zero.

And if now Russia tries to organize the “training of soldiers”, then by the time they acquire the necessary skills, Ukraine will liberate the entire territory seized by Moscow after February 24, so besides, the Russian Federation will be left without equipment and without “winter blackmail”, which means that trained soldiers will fight with bare hands…

Here is a multiplayer…

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Treadstone 71

@Treadstone71LLC Cyber intelligence, counterintelligence, Influence Operations, Cyber Operations, OSINT, Clandestine Cyber HUMINT, cyber intel and OSINT training and analysis, cyber psyops, strategic intelligence, Open-Source Intelligence collection, analytic writing, structured analytic techniques, Target Adversary Research, cyber counterintelligence, strategic intelligence analysis, estimative intelligence, forecasting intelligence, warning intelligence, threat intelligence
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By Treadstone 71

@Treadstone71LLC Cyber intelligence, counterintelligence, Influence Operations, Cyber Operations, OSINT, Clandestine Cyber HUMINT, cyber intel and OSINT training and analysis, cyber psyops, strategic intelligence, Open-Source Intelligence collection, analytic writing, structured analytic techniques, Target Adversary Research, cyber counterintelligence, strategic intelligence analysis, estimative intelligence, forecasting intelligence, warning intelligence, threat intelligence