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The Cynic

Putin’s elites are looking for a way out of the “military trap” while Putin himself wants to “freeze the war”

The Kremlin has recently initiated several projects. All of them are in the “conflict freeze” vector.

Thus, one of the main escalation models – a threat to blow up a nuclear power plant without its implementation, but with a gradual build-up – was presented by the UN as “proof of the need to end the conflict.”

There are rumors that Putin would agree to any form of war freeze, including one that includes UN peacekeepers in Ukraine.

Moreover, he could have insisted on the “peacekeepers” themselves, since the organization itself (and especially its humanitarian branch) is teeming with agents of influence who can engage in intelligence activities after the freeze.

Putin, as part of the “war cryostasis” strategy, wants to gain control over the territory of the Luhansk and Donetsk Regions, as well as other areas that may be partially occupied by the time the “temporary peace treaty” is signed.

The goal is to form a “southern fist” and an “eastern fist” for several months after the freezing of the conflict, which, in theory, should break through the defenses up to Odessa, Transnistria and, accordingly, Moldova.

Thoughts are quite piquant, but they fit into the logic of “Kyiv in 3 days.” (They never learned anything.) The ambitions of advisers with psychological imperial deviations continue to hover in the clouds of “the fall of Kyiv” and “the division of Ukraine into 3 zones” [The Kremlin continues to say that Poland will “bite off” Western Ukraine].

Actually, the goal is to stop Western military supplies through freezing the war, thereby depriving Ukraine of a chance to resist against the “kulak”.

Naturally, if the war freezes, the West will significantly reduce military assistance, and the UN will probably insist on the demilitarization of the front-line zones. (And then “Ukraine will blow up the toilet on the line of demarcation” and forward – on a new one).

All overt and covert agents of the Kremlin were included in the work to implement the plan. Corresponding messages were directly or indirectly conveyed to all Western countries, which along the way were threatened with a “complete shutdown of gas.”

Britain and the United States, in turn, continue to defend Ukrainian sovereignty, constantly revealing information about “sleeper agents”. London and Washington are categorically against “freezing the war” because Putin’s plan seems obvious enough: only agents who tell “realists from European parties” about the economic and social consequences of the energy crisis are ready to turn a blind eye to it.

So, one of the last hopes in this scheme is to play the card with the nuclear power plant, which will not be undermined for the time being, otherwise the last trump card is lost in the hands of the “negotiating lobby”.

But the “economic elites” from the Family continue to look for attempts to break out of the military trap. In principle, the option of losing the war is quite suitable for a clan that is losing any influence: then, on the basis of a total redistribution of power power, the Family can try their luck by entering the Kremlin through ties with the West.

And the quite depressing tone of the latest military reports opens a window of opportunity after the defeat of the Russian Federation. And then the threat to Putin will be his main “pillars”: ultra-patriots with imperial manners, as well as power elites who want to “bring the war to the end.”

In case of defeat, it is the very system that Putin nurtured that can devour him.

In essence, Putin’s departure will not solve the problem of military expansion. Almost any member of the current power clan is in one way or another in the orbit of the “imperial idea”, so the next war will still be possible.

So the slow tactics of “complete grinding of the Russian forces on the territory of Ukraine” is one of the guarantees that Ukraine will get several relatively safe years for the implementation of military-strategic projects.

In addition, “Crimean cigarette strikes” very effectively shake the Kremlin. Moreover, the Kremlin reveals the points of deployment of its air defense. (In secret: look what the Americans supply there – you will find the answer why Ukraine “lights up” Russian air defense)

About Post Author

Treadstone 71

@Treadstone71LLC Cyber intelligence, counterintelligence, Influence Operations, Cyber Operations, OSINT, Clandestine Cyber HUMINT, cyber intel and OSINT training and analysis, cyber psyops, strategic intelligence, Open-Source Intelligence collection, analytic writing, structured analytic techniques, Target Adversary Research, cyber counterintelligence, strategic intelligence analysis, estimative intelligence, forecasting intelligence, warning intelligence, threat intelligence
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By Treadstone 71

@Treadstone71LLC Cyber intelligence, counterintelligence, Influence Operations, Cyber Operations, OSINT, Clandestine Cyber HUMINT, cyber intel and OSINT training and analysis, cyber psyops, strategic intelligence, Open-Source Intelligence collection, analytic writing, structured analytic techniques, Target Adversary Research, cyber counterintelligence, strategic intelligence analysis, estimative intelligence, forecasting intelligence, warning intelligence, threat intelligence