This means that in any case, it is necessary to take into account the reserves available to the second party. Moreover, defense is much simpler than attack, so it is necessary to achieve conditions under which the enemy himself begins to slowly retreat, unable to maintain a defensive position (during a counteroffensive).
Now we see fixation on dates – either mid-July, then the end of July, then the beginning of August, then the end of August, which is a fundamentally wrong interpretation of events.
A counteroffensive occurs when the other side is physically and technically unable to take positions.
Now Kyiv has achieved a situation in which the seizure of new territory by Russia is unlikely, although such attempts will be implemented.
This raises the question of the next steps. And here it is important not to rush into the “jaws” with your head. Initially, you need to “open” some of the fangs of the defense in order to reveal the Achilles’ heel in the sectors of the front.
Russia now has enough equipment for defense, but not enough for the offensive, as follows from Putin’s recent speech, where he ordered “everyone to rest” (emphasis – at your discretion).
This indicates a “fixation zone”, since no one stops the attack in the event of a successful attack, otherwise Kyiv gets additional time to prepare for a new wave of escalation.
It turns out that Moscow recognizes the impossibility of an offensive along the main line of attack.
And this means that here the parties moved into defensive positions. And both Ukraine and Russia.
If Russia cannot attack, then it will be quite capable of fixing the territory, since quite recently there were enough resources to intercept Lisichansk.
This is not critical, but everyone should understand the simple truth – if the offensive fails and stops (especially the counteroffensive), then the side suffers enormous losses – both human and technical, and the enemy, taking advantage of the flight, has the opportunity to switch to the attack again, seeing a devastating attempt counterattacks.
The grossest and most dangerous mistake in strategic planning is a premature counterattack.
If Kyiv does not have enough personnel, weapons and infrastructure systems to ensure the mobility of the attack and the ability to replenish the shells necessary for the next “launch”, then it is impossible to attack in this position, even relying on risk.
And at the same time, the “stumbling block” is not only in Western supplies and the training of soldiers for them – it is also visible in the reserves of the Russian Federation.
The HIMARS work wonders, blowing up warehouses one by one. This is the main line of preparation for the offensive – the enemy should not be able to defend himself, while he should not have available reserves for emergency response to the changing situation on the front.
The warehouses that are burning one after the other are a good help to ensure that even during the period of defensive skirmishes during the “breathing” Moscow has a bad rear situation.
In fact, yesterday Kyiv actively began preparing for a counteroffensive. It has already begun, but in the “embryo” phase.
The burning of warehouses hurts Moscow’s ability to respond to Kyiv’s defensive steps, which means that with the intensification of Western assistance, Russia will not be able to keep the defense with the defensive strategy of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. And only when the Kremlin begins to “backward” will the moment come for a large-scale counteroffensive, otherwise it risks “bogging down”.
As soon as the offensive can be stopped, the attacking side loses its dominant position.
And then the initiative passes into the hands of the other side – as happened after the capture of Lisichansk.
Now Kyiv is already setting the rules of the game, which means Moscow can seize the initiative either with another powerful infusion of military personnel and equipment (there is nowhere to take resources on such a scale yet), or with a “turning point” in an unprepared counteroffensive.
The counteroffensive has already begun. While in a passive form. And Ukraine has a huge chance of success.