Surrender? The Cynic

Negotiations in Turkey have come to an end. As “friends” say, 2 parties played a special role in lobbying the negotiation track:
– Erdogan and Turkish officials
– Abramovich, who was urgently made a “victim of Russian aggression” yesterday.

On the Russian negotiation arena, 2 parties also competed:
– The War Party, consisting of the “hawks of the Russian spring”, who intended to fight “until the last Russian” – their reputation, even on the sidelines, has fallen significantly due to the fact that it was they (and not the oligarchs and sislibs) who prepared the operation that ended … well Let’s summarize below.
– The Peace Party, consisting of oligarchs, businessmen, “systemic liberals” and a number of shadow people who are officially part of the first group, but behind the scenes belong to the second.

The key link in the second force is Abramovich and his “friends with frozen greens.” Moreover, Abramovich was outside the negotiating groups from Ukraine and Russia – he was inside the Turkish delegation, being a mediator of the conflict.

The negotiating position fluctuated significantly before the negotiations themselves. It is worth paying attention to the “village big top”, which turned into phrases about the accession of the LPR and DPR to Russia through a referendum. A few hours later, the remark turned out to be the “subjective position” of a number of “irresponsible persons.” This was a signal that the solution was under development, and it was developed by that evening in the direction of “roll back and put it as it was.”

The resurrected Shoigu demonstrated the same position today.

⚡️The main tasks of the first stage of the special operation have been completed, you can focus on the main goal – the liberation of Donbass – Shoigu

It turns out the main target was Donbass…

It just so happened that “achieved” became “desired” and replaced it. Now the main question is how to present this achievement as desirable to the people, who have been fed stories for a month about what Zelensky is a fascist, a Nazi … Why was a 64-km column approaching Kiev needed? Why was there an attempt to encircle the capital if the goal was Donbass?

These are difficult questions – they are now being asked by users with Z on their avatars. And they have a cognitive dissonance – they were ordered to get rid of the “central direction” – the patriotic public is in absolute shock.

⚡️Negotiations between Russia and Ukraine were constructive — Medinsky

⚡️A decision was made to drastically reduce military activity in the Kiev and Chernihiv directions – Deputy Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation

⚡️Russia suggested that the meeting between Putin and Zelensky is possible simultaneously with the initialing of the peace treaty by the foreign ministers – Medinsky

 We emphasize again. The Russian side insisted on the need for negotiations between Putin and Zelensky.

⚡️The Russian Federation received written proposals from Ukraine confirming its desire for a neutral and nuclear-free status – Medinsky

From the first days of the war, he said that Russia needed a “scribble” to demonstrate it through propagandists as a victory

⚡️Ukraine abandons the desire to return the Crimea and Donbass by military means – Medinsky

So, the main result of the negotiations:
– Ukraine, in accordance with the agreement, refuses to pursue military alliances, signs the status of a neutral and non-nuclear country, in turn receives security guarantees from representatives of powerful military powers.

This means that Ukraine receives “guarantees like NATO” without joining NATO and without any NATO obligations.

Further-the issue of the Crimea will be resolved peacefully for 15 years.

An identical negotiating path will affect the LNR and the DNR.

This is exactly what existed before the start of the war. (Ukraine never intended to attack either the Crimea or the LDNR).

In addition, Medinsky stressed that the Kremlin has no claims to joining the EU.

Of all this, one question remains incomprehensible: what did Russia get in the end, besides civilizational sanctions?

As a result, Ukraine received preliminary security guarantees from NATO countries.

It will be hard to draw a victory for Russia …

Now the terms of the negotiations have been forwarded to Putin.

There are a number of concerns – I will talk about them a little later. Spoiler: possible “southern cauldron”

By Treadstone 71

@Treadstone71LLC Cognitive Warfare Training, Intelligence and Counterintelligence Tradecraft, Influence Operations, Cyber Operations, OSINT,OPSEC, Darknet, Deepweb, Clandestine Cyber HUMINT, customized training and analysis, cyber psyops, strategic intelligence, Open-Source Intelligence collection, analytic writing, structured analytic techniques, Target Adversary Research, strategic intelligence analysis, estimative intelligence, forecasting intelligence, warning intelligence, Disinformation detection, Analysis as a Service