The Van Creveld Prophecy
Martin van Creveld stands as one of the most consequential military theorists of the 20th century, fundamentally reshaping how intelligence professionals analyze modern conflict. His work provided the intellectual scaffolding for understanding asymmetric and hybrid warfare long before these terms dominated the modern lexicon. While van Creveld often utilized terms such as “low-intensity conflicts,” “fourth-generation wars,” and “wars beyond the state,” his core thesis in The Transformation of War (1991) remains a critical warning: traditional state armies have lost their monopoly on the use of violence.
The Rise of the Non-State Belligerent
Modern conflict arenas no longer feature clearly defined state belligerents. Insurgents, terrorist cells, organized criminal syndicates, and paramilitary forces now operate as primary actors. Intelligence analysis must recognize these groups not as outliers but as key elements of hybrid warfare. These actors intertwine traditional kinetic force with non-traditional subversion, creating a volatile operational environment. Van Creveld correctly identified that the rigid structures of conventional militaries often fail against these fluid, adaptable enemies who refuse to abide by the laws of war.
Narrative as the Decisive Weapon
Victory in conflicts between strong states and weak but adaptable adversaries rarely comes from superior firepower. Success depends on political will, legitimacy, and the absolute control of the narrative. Moral, ideological, and public perception factors now dictate the outcome of wars. Information operations, cyber attacks, and psychological pressure play a central role in this dynamic. Security leaders understand that the mind is the main target. Organizations like treadstone71.com specialize in decoding these information maneuvers, training analysts to understand that in hybrid warfare, the story wins the war, not the missile.
The Everywhere War
Future wars possess no clear front lines. Conflict occurs everywhere and nowhere simultaneously: in dense urban centers, across the media landscape, and deep within the cyber domain. Regular armies, designed for decisive battles on open fields, lack the efficacy to solve the complex problems of these diffuse engagements. Van Creveld predicts an increased role for irregular forces characterized by high mobility and extreme motivation. Security strategies must account for a battlespace that has expanded to include the cognitive and digital realms.
A Strategic Blueprint for Small States
Small states facing threats from powerful, unconventional actors must heed these warnings. Building a modern, future-oriented defense requires more than just hardware. Survival depends on fostering high moral and spiritual values within both military forces and society. Combat units must possess self-reliance and mobility, supported by superior command and control approaches. Furthermore, national security apparatuses must aggressively develop media resources and cyberspace capabilities while integrating weapons and software driven by artificial intelligence.
Van Creveld provided the theoretical foundation; modern practitioners must now build the architecture of resistance to ensure sovereignty in a fragmented world.
