Calculated consumption of artillery ammunition

Osinter HerrDr8 calculated the consumption of artillery ammunition by both sides based on public data on pre-war stocks, estimated production, foreign shipments, and public statements by officials.

According to his calculations, in the fourth quarter of this year, Ukraine should, for the first time, begin to outstrip Russia in the consumption of artillery ammunition:

9 thousand per day versus 7.

In the third quarter of 2023, Russia still retained the advantage: 12 thousand per day versus 8.

Of course, the calculations are approximate + there is one inaccuracy in the chart: in February-April 2022, Ukraine, according to some estimates, fired 20-40 thousand ammunition per day until it used up its reserves.

But the graph shows the trend very well: even though Russia has increased the production of ammunition from 1 million in 2022 to 1.5 million in 2023.

This is still not enough to maintain the same rate of fire – from 63 thousand per day in February-March 2022 it dropped to 12 thousand in July-September 2023 and should drop to 7 thousand by the end of the year (once again, this is a forecast).

But there are also unpleasant factors that need to be discussed.

1. Russia compensates for the artillery shell shortage with airstrikes and air superiority. And although FABs with UMPC are not very accurate (the same goes for NAR/NURS), this is still a problem for Ukrainian troops on the front line.

2. The West was unable to increase the supply/production of artillery ammunition for Ukraine to at least the level of 20 thousand per day, so that the Ukrainian Armed Forces could dismantle concreted Russian positions following the example of how the Russian Armed Forces did it in Severodonetsk.

3. There is no reason to believe that Ukraine will be able to maintain the current rate of artillery fire in 2024.

Western officials say warehouses are running low, and production increases are not even close to keeping pace with consumption.

True, Russia has the same situation and increasing the production of ammunition to 2 million per year will not solve the problem with the shell shortage.