A Memo from Ukrainian OSINT Researcher Tatarigami
Many people wonder how strikes on Russian oil and gas infrastructure lead to a victory for Ukraine. Of course, if we consider these strikes separately, individually, they do not. Just like other actions, be it the introduction of new sanctions against some Russian bank, the liberation of this or that village – a war in itself does not win.
War is won by a series of operational successes built on tactical victories.
When neither side can capture the enemy capital and force the enemy to surrender, war becomes a contest of endurance, will, social exhaustion, and ingenuity.
The results of small actions are not always visible, but they can lead to significant changes.
Blows to the Russian economy play into the hands of weakening its stability and gaining an advantage for Ukraine.
It is impossible to predict which action will be the “last straw,” but it must be achieved by the cumulative effect of previous actions.
Tactical victories do not always translate into operational or strategic victories.
However, the destruction of an oil refinery that generates millions of dollars in profits by drones, even expensive ones, has a long-term effect.
The continued continuation of such strikes increases the pressure on the Russian government and weakens its ability to wage war.
